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04 Oct 2026

Week 4 Against The Spread: Where the Confidence Went

With submissions closed for Week 4, here's where confidence points landed across the slate.

The most trusted pick of the week was Buffalo Bills (-6.5) over New England Patriots, taking 95% of the confidence points staked on that game.

Not everyone played it safe — Las Vegas Raiders (+4.5) picked up 36% of the confidence points against Kansas City Chiefs despite being the underdog on paper.

The toughest call of the week looked to be New Orleans Saints (-2.5) vs Atlanta Falcons, which split the pool almost 57% / 43%.

A full house for some: 100% of players ranked all 8 games rather than leaving points on the table.

For 4% of players, this is a double week — points scored this round count double.

Game by Game

Here's how confidence points broke down across the full slate:

  • Buffalo Bills (-6.5) vs New England Patriots — 95% of confidence points
  • San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) vs Denver Broncos — 98% of confidence points
  • Detroit Lions (-3.5) vs Carolina Panthers — 70% of confidence points
  • Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) vs Philadelphia Eagles — 86% of confidence points
  • Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) vs Las Vegas Raiders — 64% of confidence points
  • Chicago Bears (-3) vs New York Jets — 100% of confidence points
  • New Orleans Saints (-2.5) vs Atlanta Falcons — 57% of confidence points
  • Seattle Seahawks (-7) vs Los Angeles Chargers — 73% of confidence points
  • Baltimore Ravens (-11.5) vs Tennessee Titans — 80% of confidence points
  • Arizona Cardinals (-1) vs New York Giants — 63% of confidence points
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) vs Cincinnati Bengals — 66% of confidence points
  • Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) vs Miami Dolphins — 82% of confidence points
  • Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) vs Washington Commanders — 70% of confidence points
  • Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) vs Houston Texans — 76% of confidence points
  • Green Bay Packers (-3.5) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 70% of confidence points
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) vs Cleveland Browns — 100% of confidence points

The scoreboard will tell the rest of the story once these games are played.

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